筑波大学社会工学系　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

平成15年度　　ファカルティー・セミナー

(Faculty Seminar)

日　時　：　2003年11月13日(木)　　16:30-17:30

場　所　：　第三学群C棟　３C 201

講演者　：　大山　昌子　　[ 一橋大学経済学研究科 専任講師 ]

司会者　：　金子　守

演　題 ： Cost of Children and Recent Fertility Decline in Japan

＜ abstract ＞

The total fertility rate in Japan started its steady decline in mid-1970s to reach the low level of 1.33 in 2001, which is far below the replacement rate of 2.11. This is expected to decrease the future labor force in Japan, and is causing the serious problem to Japan’s social security system.

The causes of this low fertility was said to be the delay of marriage timing of young people. But, very recent existing researches have shown that the decline of fertility rate of the married couples constitutes more than half of the recent total fertility decline.

In National Fertility Survey, many married women answered that the reason why they do not give birth to more children is the cost of educating and raising children is too high. Therefore, in this research, the cost of children is estimated using equivalence scales, and compared with those of other countries. Also, it is investigated whether the cost of children caused the fertility decline or not. In the empirical result, it is shown that the high cost of children in Japan is one of the causes of the fertility decline.